Texas

Texas Senate 2026

Likely RRunoff

Incumbent: John Cornyn (R)

Texas's Senate race features a contested Republican primary: incumbent John Cornyn faces a challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has led recent primary polling. Early general-election polling has been close. Texas's recent statewide results lean Republican; we update as polling arrives.

Primary resultRunoff pending

James Talarico (D)John Cornyn (R)Ken Paxton (R)

Projected by ABC News, NBC News · Mar 3, 2026 · unofficial

Democratic: James Talarico won the March 3 primary. Republican: a May 26, 2026 runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. Runoff result pending.

Polling below predates this result.

Jasmine Crockett

U.S. Representative, TX-30

51.0%

Ken Paxton

Texas Attorney General

47.2%

James Talarico

State Representative and former teacher

44.6%

John Cornyn

U.S. Senator from Texas (incumbent)

42.1%

Wesley Hunt

U.S. Representative, TX-38

17.5%

Colin Allred

Former U.S. Representative

—

Polling

Polling Average

Polling average as of May 25, 2026 · updated 1 day ago

Recent Polls(33)

Quantus Insights

2026-05-25

n 1,018LV

Crockett—

Paxton53%

Talarico—

Cornyn43%

Hunt—

Global Strategy Group

2026-05-20

n 600LV

Crockett—

Paxton52%

Talarico—

Cornyn40%

Hunt—

Texas Southern University

2026-05-18

n 1,223LV

Crockett—

Paxton45%

Talarico45%

Cornyn—

Hunt—

Univ. of Houston

2026-05-05

n 1,200LV

Crockett—

Paxton48%

Talarico—

Cornyn45%

Hunt—

University of Texas

2026-04-29

n 1,200RV

Crockett—

Paxton34%

Talarico42%

Cornyn—

Hunt—

Texas Public Opinion Research

2026-04-28

n 1,865LV

Crockett—

Paxton41%

Talarico46%

Cornyn—

Hunt—

Texas Public Opinion Research

2026-04-16

n 1,225LV

Crockett—

Paxton48%

Talarico—

Cornyn40%

Hunt—

co/efficient

2026-04-14

n 1,143LV

Crockett—

Paxton43%

Talarico—

Cornyn44%

Hunt—

GQR

2026-03-30

n 600LV

Crockett—

Paxton47%

Talarico—

Cornyn42%

Hunt—

Quantus Insights

2026-03-24

n 1,218LV

Crockett—

Paxton49%

Talarico—

Cornyn41%

Hunt—

Change Research

2026-03-19

n 811RV

Crockett—

Paxton42%

Talarico—

Cornyn39%

Hunt—

Public Policy Polling

2026-03-13

n 565LV

Crockett—

Paxton45%

Talarico—

Cornyn42%

Hunt—

Texas Public Opinion Research

2026-03-09

n 781LV

Crockett—

Paxton49%

Talarico—

Cornyn41%

Hunt—

YouGov

2026-03-02

n 1,688LV

Crockett—

Paxton36%

Talarico—

Cornyn32%

Hunt17%

Emerson College

2026-03-01

n 547LV

Crockett—

Paxton40%

Talarico—

Cornyn36%

Hunt17%

			Pop	Crockett	Paxton	Talarico	Cornyn	Hunt
2026-05-25	Quantus Insights	1,018	LV	—	53%	—	43%	—
2026-05-20	Global Strategy Group	600	LV	—	52%	—	40%	—
2026-05-18	Texas Southern University	1,223	LV	—	45%	45%	—	—
2026-05-05	Univ. of Houston	1,200	LV	—	48%	—	45%	—
2026-04-29	University of Texas	1,200	RV	—	34%	42%	—	—
2026-04-28	Texas Public Opinion Research	1,865	LV	—	41%	46%	—	—
2026-04-16	Texas Public Opinion Research	1,225	LV	—	48%	—	40%	—
2026-04-14	co/efficient	1,143	LV	—	43%	—	44%	—
2026-03-30	GQR	600	LV	—	47%	—	42%	—
2026-03-24	Quantus Insights	1,218	LV	—	49%	—	41%	—
2026-03-19	Change Research	811	RV	—	42%	—	39%	—
2026-03-13	Public Policy Polling	565	LV	—	45%	—	42%	—
2026-03-09	Texas Public Opinion Research	781	LV	—	49%	—	41%	—
2026-03-02	YouGov	1,688	LV	—	36%	—	32%	17%
2026-03-01	Emerson College	547	LV	—	40%	—	36%	17%

Showing 15 most recent of 33 polls.

Prediction Markets

No prediction market data available