2026 Election Outlook
Seats up for grabs with consensus race ratings
U.S. Senate
Current balance: 47D – 53R
47
Democrat
51 for majority
R majority
53
Republican
Ratings Breakdown
9
2
2
4
14
Safe D: 9Likely D: 1Lean D: 2Tossup: 1Lean R: 2Likely R: 4Safe R: 14
Senate Race Map
Races
| State | Incumbent | Rating | Cook | Sabato | Inside Elections |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Hickenlooper(D) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |
| Chris Coons(D) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |
| Dick Durbin(D) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |
| Ed Markey(D) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |
| Cory Booker(D) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |
| Ben Ray Lujan(D) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |
| Jeff Merkley(D) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |
| Jack Reed(D) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |
| Mark Warner(D) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | |
| Tina Smith(D) | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
| Jon Ossoff(D) | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | |
| Jeanne Shaheen(D) | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | |
| Gary Peters(D) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | |
| Dan Sullivan(R) | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | |
| Susan Collins(R) | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | |
| Joni Ernst(R) | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | |
| Deb Fischer(R) | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | |
| Thom Tillis(R) | Likely R | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | |
| John Cornyn(R) | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | |
| Tommy Tuberville(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
| Tom Cotton(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
| Jim Risch(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
| Jerry Moran(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
OPEN | Mitch McConnell(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Bill Cassidy(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
| Cindy Hyde-Smith(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
| Steve Daines(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | |
| James Lankford(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
| Lindsey Graham(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | |
| Mike Rounds(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
| Bill Hagerty(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
| Jim Justice(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
| John Barrasso(R) | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
The Rating column is Decision Labs' own assessment. The Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections columns are those raters' own current ratings, sourced via Wikipedia's race-ratings tables (CC BY-SA), shown for comparison.